Polls

Are polls off due to the increased popularity in people having cell phones only? This is interesting, and the younger generation seem more into the cell-phone only way of living now. This is Obama's key demographic also. Perhaps the pollsters need to reevaluate their way of polling. I guess they couldn't run a poll asking this question, since it would be 100% land line use (that's the only phones they call!).

Glenn Reynolds, aka Instapundit, had this to say yesterday:

WORST CONGRESS EVER: "Remember when only 14% approved of the job Congress is doing? A year later, only 9% do." The Pelosi/Reid leadership team is taking Congress places it's never been before!

UPDATE: So why are the Republicans running scared, and why aren't they going after the "new Democratic Congress" hammer-and-tongs? Beats me. Because they're idiots, I guess.

Really? So it's all the Democrats fault? Well let's look at the actual Rasmussen poll they are talking about. The poll is located here, but apparently Reynolds, along with others on the right ignored a key fact from the poll:

Despite these negative attitudes towards Congress, Democrats continue to enjoy a double digit lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Also, Barack Obama holds a modest lead over John McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Other key stats on Election 2008 can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.

All the polls that have come out giving Congress very poor ratings have had one thing in common - the Republicans rank far worse than the Democrats. The people seem to realize that the Republicans have been playing obstructionist non-stop, despite the media's attempt to downplay the record number of filibusters they have engaged in.

The people of this country elected this Congress to power in 2006. Since then the Republicans have said "screw the people" and blocked countless legislation that the people wanted passed. We the people realize that fact, and the Republicans will pay for their obstructionism in the fall.

Yes Glenn - please let the Republicans go after the Democrats on this poll. It will open up a whole new dialog where the Democrats can really highlight how the Republicans ignored the will of the people after their astounding defeat in 2006. This is a debate that any Democrat should be willing to embrace, and one the Republicans will loose badly.

Right after Obama became the nominee, the polls had Obama ahead of McCain by only a couple of points. The media used that to ask why Obama wasn't winning by more. Their argument was that people wanted change and the polls aren't showing that with Obama.

Fast forward a couple of weeks.

Obama is now leading in polls by huge amounts. Now the media is asking if it's too good to be true for Obama.

So two weeks ago it was a problem that Obama was stomping McCain, now it is a problem that Obama is stomping McCain. Wow the media is great at inventing news!

Obama leads McCain by 15 points (51-36) in the latest Newsweek poll. If this is the "bump" they were saying Obama would see after securing the nomination, then McCain needs to just drop out now.

(updated to change from 16 points to 15 points. That's what I get for doing early morning math!)

First the good news:

Presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama holds a six point lead over his Republican counterpart John McCain, a new CBS News poll finds. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, with 6 percent of respondents undecided.

Then the good news:

President Bush's approval rating is at its lowest level to date. Just 25 percent of Americans approve of the overall job Mr. Bush is doing as President, an all-time low for him and among the lowest approval ratings ever recorded for a President.

McCain = Bush is a great campaign strategy to run on this year. I'm curious to see how much more lower he goes when it gets around that Bush did lie us into war and we now have an investigation that proves it.

This is the biggest margin to date for Obama. I guess the pundits blew it again. It seems that the "bitter" comment isn't hurting Obama, like they all claimed it would. As matter of fact, the AP is finding out that there isn't much impact at all:

Yes, some Democrats in Pennsylvania's Rust Belt communities were upset by Barack Obama's suggestion that voters there "cling to guns or religion" because of bitterness about their economic lot. But many more seem to think it was no big deal - and if there's a problem it's with the political slapfest that has followed.

So Scarborough, Buchanan, O'Reilly, and all you other broadcasters out there, stop telling middle America how they feel. You are elitists in your own sense and have no idea what we "feel". It's an insult to try and tell us that. Here's something middle America. Why don't one of you guys walk into a local bar and start telling all the people that they need to "feel" this way? Watch how fast you get called outside.

Of course what they are paying attention to is a poll that says McCain leads Obama and Clinton on the issue of Iraq by 14%. They also seem dumbfounded by the results. Really? I'm not.

Here's why McCain is doing good in that part of the poll. The fault lies in the same people who are wondering why - the media. McCain has made numerous gaffs on Iraq in the past few weeks, which would have proven fatal to any Democrat. Instead the media covers them up for John. They dismiss them as "senior moments" or just let's them go unchallenged. It's part of that love fest we have witnessed between McCain and the media, and it's disgusting.

Do you really think McCain would be doing this well on the question of Iraq if the media did their job and reported that McCain doesn't even know who the enemy really is?

Just because he fought in a war doesn't make him commander ready. If we followed that logic then we should expect a President Lynndie England in the future.

April Fool's:

Senator Hillary Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Primary is shrinking.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%. For Clinton, that five-point edge is down from a ten-point lead a week ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March.

Her lead is down to only 5 points now. This has been typical this entire cycle. Clinton leads in a state for months and then once their primary date gets closer, and Obama gets out there and starts campaigning he ends up eating away at that lead, or even beating her. I want to hear the pundits talk it away if Obama ends up winning Pa.

Everyone thought the Rev. Wright situation would really hurt Obama. Well it didn't. Instead Hillary's lying has hurt her:

As expected, one of the two major Democratic candidates saw a downturn in the latest NBC/WSJ poll, but it's not the candidate that you think. Hillary Clinton is sporting the lowest personal ratings of the campaign. Moreover, her 37 percent positive rating is the lowest the NBC/WSJ poll has recorded since March 2001, two months after she was elected to the U.S. Senate from New York.

We have been through almost eight years of a President who constantly feeds us lies. I don't think the American people want four more of that. Perhaps it's time Hillary bow out and try to save any face she might have, but I doubt that will happen. Instead she will stay in, destroying the party, because everything is about her.

He leads 47%-45%, which is in the MOE. Still it shows Hillary may have a restless night.

A new Reuters poll has Obama leading Clinton 48-42 percent in Texas and trailing her 44-42 percent in Ohio.

Lanny Davis posted a blog on The Hill today entitled:

Recent Polling Data Show Serious Concerns About Sen. Obama’s ‘Electability’ Over Sen. McCain vs. Sen. Clinton’s (Lanny Davis)

Very interesting. I saw that and thought there was a bunch of polls I missed. Quickly I went to Real Clear Politics and looked at the recent head to head polls:

Now I wonder what polls Lanny is reading?

While Clinton still has the lead, there is an even more interesting part of this poll. If you look at it by region, she is gaining a lot of her support from the Columbus area:

Obama is within the MOE in Toledo and Cleveland. If he picks up those two areas then he could feasibly win the delegate race in Ohio. To help give you a better idea of the delegate layout in Ohio, here is a map:

I think it will be really hard for Obama to win Southeast Ohio, but Cleveland and Toledo should be obtainable for him. If he can carry Cleveland, Toledo, Dayton and Cincinnati then he could end up winning the delegate race in Ohio.

Rasmussen has a new poll out for Ohio and Hillary's lead has slipped to only 5% now. It looks like NAFTA is a key player in the decisions, which are hurting Hillary:

By a 53% to 14% margin, voters believe that Obama opposes NAFTA while there are mixed perceptions on where Clinton stands. Thirty-five percent (35%) believe she favors NAFTA, 31% believe she opposes it and 34% are not sure. This issue is critical in a state that has lost thousands of manufacturing jobs. Politically, these lower-income voters have generally supportive of Clinton throughout the primary season.

I can attest to this being a big issue in Ohio. This state has taken a serious hit from NAFTA. Jobs have left this state at a record pace, and if Obama continues to show how Hillary supported NAFTA then she can count on losing this state.

A new CBS poll has Obama leading Clinton by 16 points nationwide. Come on Hillary - even Romney had the sense to get out after awhile.